Annual Report Strategic Report continued 15
Strategic Report
An excerpt from that investment premise is below. In it we outlined our intrinsic value
for the company at £3.50 per share. The bid from Mars was £3.75. It also highlights
the patience in our approach as we were aware of the company prior to its float but
were unable to invest at that time due to price. However, our ongoing monitoring
allowed us to act quickly when subsequent price falls gave us that opportunity.
“Hotel Chocolat listed on the London Stock Exchange in 2016, with both founders
retaining a significant stake in the business. As of December 31st, 2022, they each
own 27.1% of the company. We have known both Angus and Peter for a long time and
hold them in high regard.
We believe that the key moat for the business is its strong brand and resulting
customer loyalty, which it has cultivated through a combination of innovation,
creativity, disciplined pricing, and direct distribution. In so doing, it has also avoided
the pitfalls that led to the downfall of one of its competitors, Thorntons.
One of the company’s great recent innovations has been the Velvetiser hot chocolate
machine, which is increasingly becoming a staple household appliance and has formed
the foundations of an effective subscription model. As a product, it creates loyal,
repeat-customers who repurchase the chocolate sachets. The repeat purchases and
subscription service also provide the company with a steady revenue stream in an
industry where consumer purchases are usually very seasonal (Christmas, Easter and
Valentine’s Day are the main chocolate-shopping opportunities).
The differentiated taste of Hotel Chocolat’s chocolate, stems from its “More Cacao,
Less Sugar” mantra. Cacao is around five times more expensive than sugar, but the
company is committed to cacao always being the number-one ingredient in its
chocolate, even in milk and white varieties. This differentiates the product from those
of many of the Group’s competitors, in which sugar is frequently the primary
ingredient. The high-cacao content within Hotel Chocolat’s chocolate, also enables
them to justify a higher price-point and enables them a higher degree of
price-elasticity as their consumer is likely to be more driven by quality than price.
The company navigated the challenges of Covid admirably, succeeding in not only
switching from being a primarily store-based to an online business during the
lockdowns, but managing to grow sales by 21% between FY20 and FY21.
We have long admired Hotel Chocolat, so much so that at the time of the IPO we
were considering investing in the business. Although this didn’t happen because the
price was above our limit, we continued to keep a close eye on the company. Last
year, following the announcement of the closure of the Japanese and US businesses,
Hotel Chocolat’s share price dropped, opening an opportunity for us to invest. This is
acompany built on experimentation and innovation and it is inevitable that not every
experiment will lead to success. However, we believe that the market had over-
reacted, that the underlying strength of the UK business remained, and that the doors
to overseas expansion had not permanently closed. Indeed, earlier this year Hotel
Chocolat announced that it had found a new partner for its Japanese joint venture.
In some ways, the shock of the drop has had a positive cathartic effect, with the
business rationalising and cutting back on areas into which it had perhaps strayed too
far (such as coffee machines & pods and beauty products). At the same time, we
believe they haven’t lost the innovative skill upon which their hitherto success has
been built, and which will enable it to continue to grow in the future.
We have modelled out a range of potential scenarios to determine Hotel Chocolat’s
intrinsic value. A central scenario values the UK business alone at £3.50 per share. The
bottom of that IV range is around £2.00 a share. We invested at £1.35, which, based
on the central case, would result in an upside to IV of c. 160%.”
Investment
Management
Review and
Outlook
Continued